A brand new poll from Iowa released on November 2nd, 2024 from pollster Ann Selzer of the Des Moines Register showed that Harris was up by 3% in the previously uncontested state, polling at 47% to Trump’s 44%. The poll has sent shockwaves through the media and completely blindsided journalists. But why should one poll, from one pollster, in a state that has not been very influential toward the presidential election matter so much? The answer is two factors.
First, the pollster, Ann Selzer, is highly regarded in the polling community. From 2008 to 2022, she has been more consistently accurate with her predictions than any other pollster and is known for being able to detect shifts that others fail to predict. In the 2008 primaries in Iowa, she correctly predicted that Barack Obama would win by a strong margin, while many others thought that Hillary Clinton would win or come much closer. In the 2016 presidential election, she predicted that Donald Trump would win Iowa by 7%, contrary to many other polls forecasting a close race or a Clinton win. True to her track record, Trump carried the state by 9%. In 2020, she again predicted a 7% win for Trump while most other pollsters expected a close race or even a Biden win. Once again, Trump carried the state by 8%. The only election since 2008 she got wrong was the 2018 governor’s race, where she predicted the Democratic candidate would eke out a win but instead, the Republican candidate won by a small margin. Clare Malone from polling website FiveThirtyEight has called her “the best pollster in politics.” Famous election analyst Nate Silver said that she “has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right” and “She has near-oracular status.”
The second reason for the recent craze is the size of the shift this poll could indicate. Iowa is not currently considered a swing state and every other poll from Iowa this election cycle predicts a comfortable win for Trump. If Harris could potentially win Iowa, she would be outperforming Trump by a wide margin. If this margin applied to other states as well, Harris would win by a landslide, and would flip states that were not even thought to be winnable, such as Florida, Texas, and Ohio. Such a large victory would be unfathomable and it is extremely unlikely to happen, but this poll could signify that Harris may be stronger in states, like Michigan and Wisconsin than other polls report.
What could explain the unexpected shift that Selzer predicts? The most likely answer is abortion. The 2024 presidential election is the first presidential election since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which allowed abortion statutes to be decided state-by-state. In July 2024, Iowa passed an abortion ban that would prevent anyone from getting an abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, with limited exceptions such as rape, incest, or danger of the woman’s life. This has been widely unpopular, with 59% of the population of Iowa (and 69% of women in Iowa) opposing the new abortion ban. The Iowa poll shows that 56% of women in Iowa support Harris and the most-cited reason was abortion. Abortion is the second largest issue to voters who support Harris, with democracy as the largest issue. Independent voters are also supporting Harris over Trump, which would be a shift from the 2020 presidential election.
The election is now only one day away and is widely considered to be a toss-up. While it is unexpected for Harris to win Iowa, the state does not exist in a bubble, and any shift from 2020 in Iowa could signify a shift in similar states or nationwide. This poll just goes to show how unpredictable this election cycle is and how we may see some surprises on Election Night.
Junior Nicholas Carpenter is the News Editor. His email is ncarpent@fandm.edu.