On November 25, 2024, former President-Elect Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, citing concerns about illegal immigration and drug trafficking, namely fentanyl. This marks a significant escalation in policy and rhetoric that could redefine the economic relationship between these two closely connected nations. Trump’s statement also resurrected his controversial suggestion that Canada should become ‘the 51st state,’ a comment that has drawn criticism on both sides of the border. The situation has now shifted to a point where Canadians and Americans alike must contemplate the economic impact of these proposed tariffs.
On January 20, Trump was appointed the 47th President of the United States, and along with that came another promise to their neighboring country: he told reporters that tariffs would be imposed on February 1. Many Canadian officials are still hopeful, believing that President Trump is threatening higher tariffs in an attempt to leverage his foreign relations with Canada, and that he may be open to working out a deal with the country. Many of the issues that President Trump argued as his reasoning for imposing the tariffs coincide with issues of national security and border control. However, that is of equal concern for American citizens as it is for Canadians, therefore, a middle-ground may still be on the table for both countries. Canadian Ambassador to the United States Kirsten Hillman stated, “We are trying to lean in to actually a cooperation, a partnership on a topic that’s very important to us. This border, it’s got two sides. It’s as important for us for that border to be safe and secure and crime-free as it is for Americans.”
These series of events are coming at an unusual time for Canadian-American relations. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6, 2025, citing internal party conflicts and declining public support. This seemingly lit a fire under Donald Trump to double down on his oppressive language against Canada. Trudeau’s resignation introduces uncertainty into Canadian-American relations. The selection of a new Liberal Party leader and subsequent prime minister could lead to shifts in trade negotiations and the possibility of easing or escalating tensions depending on their relationships and shared stances with President Trump. Additionally, Canada has supported the United States as the devastating wildfires in southern California and L.A. rage out of control. Canadian firefighters and water-dropping airplanes were sent to combat and prevent the destruction. This act of solidarity highlights the close ties between the two nations, even as tensions around tariffs and trade policies persist.
In October 2024, Canada was the largest purchaser of American goods being exported, accounting for $29.8 billion in revenue. Additionally, Canada had the third largest amount of goods being imported from America. Although it is undeniable that the Canadian economy relies much more heavily on American goods, a tariff increase of the amount Trump envisions will have serious collateral effects on both countries. For example, intermediate goods like automobiles are assembled in stages, and cross the border multiple times before final assembly. The imposition of tariffs at each stage of fabrication would be disastrous and overwhelming. There should be more of a push to uphold good relations between the two adjacent countries since they share mutual competitors and adversaries.
It is too soon to tell if Trump’s claims are serious notions, juvenile remarks that lack foundational support, or an attempt to spark conversation and interest in mutual collaboration. As the situation evolves, Canada’s response will be crucial in determining the trajectory of bilateral relations. While Canada might not currently be the primary focus of President Trump’s agenda, the looming possibility of tariffs and diplomatic tensions underscores the importance of proactive engagement and cooperative problem-solving between these neighboring nations.
Junior Zach Long is the News Editor. His email is zlong@fandm.edu.