“I voted” stickers in English and Spanish, Virginia, USA, November 2014. Courtesy of OSCE
In a recent analysis of the 2024 election dynamics, Sarah Niebler, Associate Professor of Political Science at Dickinson College, examined how race and gender influence current voter trends and political behavior. With her expertise in American politics, campaigns, and public opinion, her insights reveal a complex landscape where demographic factors such as race, gender, and age intersect; ultimately shaping support patterns for candidates and hinting at broader shifts in American political behavior.
Women’s Representation and Political Behavior
Professor Niebler highlighted the underrepresentation of women in Congress, where they make up just 30% of seats. While women have consistently shown stronger support for Democratic candidates since 1992, this gap is particularly notable in swing states, where Vice President Kamala Harris holds more support among women, while former President Donald Trump has more male backing. Public opinion has gradually shifted to reflect these gendered patterns in party alignment, making gender a focal point in understanding voter preferences.
Latino Voters and Disaggregated Support
The 2024 election has brought nuanced patterns among Latino voters. Pew Research’s August findings indicate that 57% of Latino voters lean towards Harris, suggesting stronger Democratic support. However, this is far from a uniform alignment. The data suggests that while Latino voters lean Democratic, the community is far from monolithic, with important internal differences that may impact election results. Demographic factors like gender and age create substantial variation, with education proving to be a less significant factor in voting behavior among this group.
Shifting Dynamics Among Black Voters
Polling among Black voters in late August shows that the majority still identify with the Democratic Party, with 86% of voters aged 50 and older supporting Harris. Younger Black voters, however, show a growing affinity for the Republican Party—17% of those aged 18-49 now lean Republican. The lack of a gender gap among Black voters marks a difference from some other demographics, but the generational divide hints at potential changes in future political affiliations within the Black community.
Interestingly, male support for Democratic candidates has shifted slightly over recent election cycles. For instance, male support for Democratic candidates grew from 31% for Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 38% for Joe Biden in 2020, indicating a gradual but noteworthy shift in male Democratic support.
Student Engagement and Civic Awareness in Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, the PA Collegiate Exit Polls—a collaboration among several colleges, including Dickinson and Muhlenberg—aim to gather data on voter priorities in statewide and national races. In a previous poll conducted in 2018, students found that only 8% of voters knew that none of Pennsylvania’s 18 U.S. House representatives were women. When this question was revisited in 2022, with four women now holding seats, voter awareness was marginally improved. This lack of awareness underscores a gap in public knowledge about female representation and highlights the value of educational polling initiatives.
The Harris Patriotism Experiment
Looking ahead to 2024, Professor Niebler and her team are conducting the “Harris Patriotism Experiment” to examine the relationship between partisanship and patriotism. All participants will be given the same quote, however, some will see that it was from Harris and others won’t. This study aims to assess how Harris’s patriotic rhetoric resonates with voters and whether it can influence public opinion. The expected result is that Democrats who don’t see Harris will switch to more patriotic once they see it is her, the opposite will be true when Republicans see it
In addition, a planned list experiment will attempt to indirectly measure the percentage of voters disturbed by the prospect of a woman of color as president. This indirect approach allows researchers to gauge underlying biases while minimizing the influence of social desirability bias.
Why This Matters
One audience member questioned the relevance of these complex demographic insights in an election largely defined by partisan loyalty. Professor Niebler emphasized that examining how different demographics feel represented in government is essential to understanding the full picture of American political engagement. While partisanship remains a driving force, the influence of race and gender will continue to shape how political power is distributed and exercised in America.
Junior Anna Chiaradonna is the Editor-in-Chief. Her email is achiarad@fandm.edu.