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Many Americans walked into the polling booths on November 5th thinking that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz would win. However, this was not the case.
Election night became gradually worse for the Democrats, with Harris’s odds of winning decreasing as the night progressed. Hopes of a blue Texas, Georgia, or Florida were dashed – as those states only got more red. The blue wall partially collapsed, with Donald Trump taking Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. According to the Associated Press, Kamala Harris won New York by 11%, meanwhile, Biden won it in 2020 by 23% (According to POLITICO). This is the worst showing by a Democratic candidate in the state since 1988. The AP also reported that Harris only won New Jersey by a little over 5%, in 2020 Biden won the state by about 15% (Per POLITICO). POLITICO also speculated that New Jersey could become a swing state. In the end, Trump won with 312 electoral votes compared to his 304 electoral votes in 2016, In addition, he won all 7 swing states and the popular vote too — not seen in 20 years by a Republican since Bush. He will be the second president to serve two non-consecutive terms after Grover Cleveland more than 130 years ago.
Trump gained considerably in reaching out to demographics, according to APVoteCast. Approximately 18-29-year-olds who voted for Trump saw a 10% increase from 36% in 2020 to 46% in 2024. Trump saw an 8% increase among black voters in 2024. Latino voters saw a 7% increase from 35% in 2020 to 42% in 2024. In a summary of exit polls made by the Washington Post, the Catholic vote towards Trump rose by 9% compared to 2020.
How did such an increased voter turnout occur? Especially when polling forecasts mostly predicted a tight race?
Right now, the many factions of the Democrat Party are pointing fingers at each other. Senator Bernie Sanders blamed the Harris campaign for abandoning the working class. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi fired back at Sanders. She blamed Biden’s late exit from the race and the lack of a primary following his exit, “Had the president gotten out sooner, there may have been other candidates in the race…Because the president endorsed Kamala Harris immediately, that really made it almost impossible to have a primary at that time. If it had been much earlier, it would have been different.” Pelosi remarked.
Concerning Biden, Pelosi has a point. Biden dropped out in July, only about four months before the election. The Harris-Walz campaign only had a little over 100 days to persuade voters. Only 107 days for voters to get to know and understand Kamala Harris – and even less for her VP pick Tim Walz. After Biden dropped out, he and most Democrats endorsed Kamala Harris to take over the 2024 race. There wasn’t any real debate over this. There were several things to justify this pick. She would have been the first Indian, Black, and female president if she had won. She was significantly younger than both Biden and Trump, being almost a Gen Xer. Biden was the first Silent Generation president, and was also at the time the oldest president to be elected, at the age of 78. A pejorative commonly thrown at him by his political opponents was “Sleepy Joe” because of his age and his gaffes. Signs of Harris’ unpopularity were present even in 2019. Harris was at just 5% in nationwide opinion polling according to Harvard-Harris in November 2019, putting her under Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. A month later, her presidential campaign ended because of financial difficulties.
Kamala could not adequately distance herself from Joe Biden, and his failures (like his gaffes) impacted her success in the race. Biden’s gaffes became emblematic of his administration’s woes like him falling up the stairs thrice or falling off his bike. White House press secretaries did their best to downplay the clips of Biden’s blunders that went viral on social media. Granted, some were genuine mistakes, others were inexcusable. He confused French President Macron with former president Mitterand who died in 1996. He asked “Where’s Jackie?,” in reference to a congressman who died over a month prior. The invasions of Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and tension between Taiwan and China helped further undermine faith in Biden’s administration. Biden’s administration didn’t cause these conflicts, but some wondered whether the same would have happened or persisted if Trump was president. The troubles at the Southern Border didn’t help Harris’s chances either. According to the Pew Research Center, the number of monthly encounters between migrants and Border Patrol in the U.S.-Mexico border spiked to levels not seen in more than 20 years, although in 2024 they decreased considerably. When it comes to the economy, CNN reported that the stock market was better under Biden, but again that doesn’t benefit everyone. According to a Gallup poll only 25% of Americans who have an annual household income of less than $40,000 own stocks. And although inflation has decreased to 2.4% in September according to the Labor Department, The New York Times reported that groceries have risen in price by 20% compared to four years ago.
What should the Democrats learn in the future? There are five big points. For one, many attacks on Trump and his allies did not work. Claims of his fascism and being a threat to democracy have proven ineffective. These claims have been around since 2016. Attacking his supporters will not get them to vote for you. Biden calling Trump supporters garbage was a major gaffe on his end that was weaponized in ads by Trump’s campaign. Secondly, Kamala Harris made herself a repeat of Joe Biden by being an establishment figure. She should have embraced populism like Trump. Thirdly, as previously mentioned, they should have held a primary and not immediately coalesced around Kamala Harris. Fourthly, as previously mentioned, Joe Biden should have dropped out sooner. And fifthly, Democrats need to make better judgments on the issues that matter to the electorate. They overestimated the importance of abortion as an issue and underestimated the problems in the economy. You can cite a plethora of statistics that show the economy is thriving, but you can’t tell Americans that the prices on their bills aren’t real.
Who should the Democrats nominate in 2028? John Fetterman would be the best candidate. He frequently reaches across the aisle and appears on conservative networks. He has a great mix of progressive and moderate policies that can appeal to many kinds of voters. For progressive policies he supports legalizing marijuana, criminal justice reform, and advocates for universal free school lunch. On the moderate side he has voiced support for curtailing migration and is pro-Israel, – and has rejected the progressive label. These mixes of policies can bridge party divides and make him palatable to a wide audience. He is casual in the way he dresses and acts, which can help make him seem more relatable to voters. He is tall, at 6”8, which some research suggests would help in an election.
This election was a historical and crushing loss for the Democrats. Despite Trump’s baggage, he was elected as the 47th president of the United States. Republicans are expected to have a trifecta in government, and keep if not expand their control over the Supreme Court. Policies have to change in the coming elections if Democrats want to regain some influence in government.
Freshman Tyler Wheeler is a Staff Writer. His email is twheeler@fandm.edu.